A HUDDERSFIELD “think tank” has made some alarming new predictions for the UK economy.
The group of small business leaders and public sector representatives – brought together by training company Partnerships in Management – got together last November to discuss the prospects for the economy.
They correctly forecast that sterling would fall in value to find parity with the euro and that the banking sector was heading for crisis.
But they have also predicted that unemployment will reach 4m as the recession deepens and that it may be 2011 before any “meaningful” growth takes place.
Members of the group first got together on a series of business courses and in 2007 accurately predicted the house pricing collapse and current recession.
Wanting to continue the process – so that they and their organisations might be better placed in the future – they held their first formal meeting at the end of November at Cliffe House, Shepley.
David Broadhead of Partners in Management, based at the Media Centre in Northumberland Street, said: “One of the key issues for us was how quickly things were moving in the business environment and as a consequence we will be meeting four times in the coming year and also keeping everyone up to date through our online forum.
“An example of this is our prediction of parity of sterling with the euro. The speed at which this happened was beyond our expectations. We anticipated this to happen, but not for a few months.
“Our view on the banking sector was right too – as we are seeing with the current refinancing exercises taking place.”
However, it was not all was doom and gloom. The group is forecasting opportunities for enterprising local firms.
“The group felt that the time was right for a new wave of small local entrepreneurial organisations to lead us out of recession,” said Mr Broadhead.
“Members had noticed that they were all buying from local specialist retailers rather than national chains as they offered better overall value and service.
“They also felt that large multi-nationals would begin to source locally too, as the quality and cost benefits become more apparent, environmental issues continue to rise, terrorism and political unrest increases globally and governments apply more protectionist measures to save jobs.”
Said Mr Broadhead: “This provides a fantastic opportunity for small local businesses to survive, expand or even be created where possible.
“However, we may have to see some fundamental employment and investment reforms to make this happen.
“We also see the potential for Britain to focus on ‘greener energy’ and re-establish a significant manufacturing base around that – but again that would require appropriate government vision and investment.”
The next meeting is on Friday, February 27 at Cliffe House. Anyone interested in taking part can go to www.partnersinmanagement.org.uk or contact Mr Broadhead on 07957 325336.
