One in six in Kirklees ‘could get swine flu in a week’

Oct 1 2009 By Dave Himelfield

MORE THAN 60,000 people could contract swine flu in just seven days if Kirklees is hit by an epidemic.

That means one in six of the population could be affected by an outbreak.

Those figures were in the ‘worst-case’ scenario in a new report released by NHS Kirklees health chiefs.

And even the ‘best case’ scenario predicts that more than 38,000 could become victims.

The swine flu outbreak expected in the autumn is likely to hit 30% of Kirklees’ population during the course of the illness.

Yorkshire Strategic Health Authority predicts up to 63,982 swine flu attacks (per Kirklees’s estimated 403,900 population) in seven days during the fifth and sixth week of a local epidemic.

Yorkshire SHA also anticipates 38,469 people (9.5% of Kirklees’ population) will become ill with swine flu within seven days at the peak of a ‘best case’ scenario. This would take place during the eighth and ninth week of an outbreak.

But the report said it was currently impossible to predict when the outbreak would occur.

It added it would be impossible to identify a peak in infections until two to three weeks later.

The most recent data from the Government showed the number of swine flu cases across the country almost doubled in a week, from an estimated 5,000 to 9,000, prompting speculation a second wave of infections could be on its way.

Young people (aged five-24) are most likely to become infected. People over 65 are half as likely to contract the virus but twice as likely to development complications from the illness.

The Government is hoping to start vaccinating millions of people in high-risk groups, such as those with asthma and diabetes, and health workers, next month.

Across the UK, 82 deaths have been linked to the virus, with 70 in England, nine in Scotland, one in Wales and two in Northern Ireland.

NHS Kirklees, which manages health services within the local authority, predicts a rise of up to 12% in absence from work because of swine flu with workers taking about 10 days off sick.

If schools close, the report said, an additional 15% of the workforce could be absent to care for their children.