In short - nothing is certain.

Some effects are likely to be immediate, while others will take more time to be felt.

irstly, we would not wake up on Friday outside of Europe. The government will need to start the complex legal process of extricating the country from the EU, which takes at least two years.

That almost certainly means invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the clause that allows nations to leave the EU. The actual terms of that exit would take several years to negotiate.

Meanwhile the government - and Parliament - would need to determine what it wants to do once we have left and what kind of trading agreements we want with the EU and other places.

So that all takes time.

The most immediate effect is likely to be economic and financial.

Live coverage: EU Referendum: Kirklees votes to leave the EU; minute's silence held for Jo Cox

Although Leave campaigners insist there will be no economic shock to Britain, the vast majority of economists, including the Bank of England, predict that there will be - both immediately and in the longer term.

Some have warned of a kind of Black Friday effect, in echoes of 1992's Black Wednesday economic crisis.

The most instant impact is likely to lie in the response of the markets and the effect on the value of the pound.

In the case of the markets, a major wobble could initially cost the economy and investors, including British pension funds, millions or billions of pounds.

Leave argue that even if that did happen those investments will recover, but realistically it is impossible to know for sure.

A drop in the pound would push up the price of imported goods. As Britain is a net importer, that would push up the price of living. It would probably also spark a rise in interest rates by the Bank of England - making mortgages and other borrowing dearer.

And it would make foreign holidays far more expensive, so if you're exchanging currency, it would be wise to do so before the vote.

Read more: Have we left the EU? Check the latest results with our widget

Longer term, many economic experts have warned that initial turmoil will lead to a longer term recession. There would be a period of several years in which Britain's trading relationship with other countries would be unclear - and investors and markets hate uncertainty.

In the north, where investor confidence and job creation has been on an upward trajectory but starts from a much lower base and is far more fragile than in London, for example, we could feel the effects of another recession particularly starkly.

Manchester council leader Sir Richard Leese last week gave an example of something that would definitely happen. A large multi-national has shortlisted Manchester alongside two other EU cities as relocation base, he said, with the intention of creating 200 jobs.

On a visit to Manchester, the company told him that a Brexit vote would mean we are no longer on the shortlist. Like other firms, it wants access to the Single Market.

So Brexit would halt that potential investment and the jobs that go with it.

Read more: EU Referendum voters make their mark at the Polling Stations

George Osborne has also threatened a severe austerity budget in the wake of Brexit in order to shore up public finances, dubbed a 'punishment budget' by Leave campaigners. He has warned of higher taxes and more public spending cuts in order to shore up public finances.

In reality, however, he almost certainly wouldn't be able to get that through, as 57 Tory MPs have already said they would vote it down, as well as Labour. Plus, whether he would still be in post to carry it out is highly debatable.

Which leads us to politics, where the effects of Brexit are likely to be tumultuous. David Cameron is pretty likely to resign, despite the fact he has so far insisted he would remain in Downing Street.

Tory MPs are already plotting votes of no confidence regardless of the result of the referendum. Anything other than a very comfortable vote to stay is likely to trigger moves for a leadership contest.

See how UKIP supporters react to Kirklees' result here

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If Cameron quits we would then see a vicious internal Tory battle at a time when the country will badly need leadership and a clear political focus.

Who would replace him?

Boris Johnson is clearly angling for the job, but don't underestimate Theresa May, who has been playing a shrewd game over the last few years. Quietly Eurosceptic, despite officially being on the Remain side, she would appeal to Tory rebels while bringing a calm authority that the party may wish to opt for over Boris's flamboyance.

Longer term, Tory Leave campaigners including Boris have promised to use our new-found independence to introduce a raft of measures, including cutting VAT on fuel - which you have to balance against warnings that Brexit would force up the existing price - and investing the extra cash we have back from our membership in the NHS and other public services. This is politics, though. So who knows what they will actually do.

The 3m people already here would not suddenly be sent home and in fact international law means they are unlikely to ever be forced to leave. However some may choose to go home. But the real impact would be on those seeking to come here in future.

That would not happen overnight either. Whoever is in charge will need to come up with - and get passed - a new immigration policy at the same time as negotiating the terms of our exit.

By which time another general election may well be imminent.