THE plunge in the value of sterling and the rising price of oil threaten a “double whammy” which may put many operators and travel agents out of business, a leading travel industry expert has warned.

Noel Josephides, managing director of Sunvil Holidays which operates both short and long-haul programmes, said: “The biggest problems we face as operators is that the financial meltdown has left us to cope with such enormous swings in the value of commodities that we can be put out of business.”

Mr Josephides fears even prudently-run companies could be in danger in a highly unpredictable economic landscape.

The lesson for travellers is clear. Wherever possible make bookings in the coming months for holidays protected by leading bonding schemes – mainly through ABTA, ATOL AITO – to ensure a good chance of getting your money back if things go wrong.

Mr Josephides added: “The fact is there is nobody out there who can guide us. The financial sector has got about as much clue to what is going to happen as we have.”

He said price changes caused by currency movements and changes to commodities have caused holiday prices to seesaw through a 15% to 20% differential within a short space of time – when the usual variation is around 1% to 2%.

Many firms in travel are now trading at a loss which means they could soon be at the mercy of their banks.

A survey from travel analyst Plimsoll claims that more than a quarter of all tour operators and travel agents are losing money – that’s 283 out of 1,000 operators, and 234 travel agents out of 812.

John McEwan, chairman of the Association of British Tour Agents, believes there is an acute risk of failures in the travel industry between now and January 2010.

Speaking after the demise of Cambuslang Travel, a well-regarded travel agency which traded for 25 years in Scotland, Mr McEwan warned: “Some agents are not so good at looking at their financial position.”

The Cambuslang failure has highlighted the danger to independent travellers – even if they are not actually leaving the country.

Because Cambuslang did not hold its own ATOL certificate to guard clients’ money as many as 1,000 customers could have lost money on packages which were put together ’dynamically’.

Three hundred of them might have booked UK holidays.