Twenty-three of the 69 seats on Kirklees Council will be decided this morning in what has long been one of the most finely-balanced local authorities in the country.

The ruling Labour group currently has 27 seats and is defending seven of them today. I would expect them to hold all of these without too much fuss, with the possible exception of Dewsbuy East, where there's a lot of anger about the proposal to build 500 homes on green belt land at Chidswell.

The opposition Conservatives are the next largest party with 21 seats, of which eight are up for grabs today. The party could come under pressure in Holme Valley North, Kirkburton, Denby Dale and Dewsbury South. It will be interesting to see if the Tories' eye-catching proposal to split Kirklees in two has proved a hit at the ballot box.

The Conservatives have also gone big on their opposition to the Local Development Framework (LDF) – the controversial plan to allow 22,470 new homes in Kirklees by 2028.

Several prominent anti-LDF campaigners are on the ballot paper for the Conservatives this year, including
Brenda Bodenham in Holme Valley North, Bill Armer in Ashbrow and David Hill in Colne Valley.

The Lib Dems are the third largest group on 14 seats and are defending seven of them today. Those of a yellow disposition might want to look away now because this could get ugly. The party is facing its second
electoral test since going into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. Last year the Lib Dems defended eight seats on Kirklees and lost six of them. This year, having lost their last seat on Holme Valley
North last year, they are only defending seven. A repeat of last year's performance would see them lose another five seats and retain only Almondbury and Cleckheaton. Falling into single figures would be a big come-down for a party which had 30 councillors on Kirklees as recently as 2003.

Meanwhile, the Greens will defend a seat in Newsome and have hopes of picking up another in Kirkburton. And in Holme Valley North there's a possibility of a third independent councillor being elected in the shape of Charles Greaves.

Right then, on with my predictions on the next page. No money riding on these unfortunately, just a bit of professional pride.


ALMONDBURY

One of only two seats which the Lib Dems held last year – and that was despite the fact that long-serving councillor John Smithson retired.
It's the same again this year, with Lib Dem stalwart Ann Denham calling it a day and former soldier Phil Scott hoping to keep the yellow flag flying over Castle Hill. Conservative Janice Thomas was within 300 votes of winning last time so it's going to be tight.

Prediction: Lib Dem hold

ASHBROW

A  relatively safe Labour seat which the party held by 1,000 votes last time. Bill Armer is once again standing for the Tories and Manjit Singh is running once more for the Lib Dems. Expect them to take their
traditional second and third places respectively as veteran Labour man Ken Smith wins another term.

Prediction: Labour hold


BATLEY EAST

Not one of the more interesting seats. As the old saying goes, a donkey in a red rosette could get elected for Labour here. The party retained this seat by 2,800 votes in 2011. Hanif Mayet should do something similar today.

Prediction: Labour hold


BATLEY WEST

Only slightly less rock-solid Labour than Batley West. Maybe it would need a horse to get elected for Labour here, rather than a donkey.
Either way, it won't be a struggle for Cabinet member Shabir Pandor today.

Prediction: Labour hold


BIRSTALL  AND BIRKENSHAW

And now we move on to Conservative donkey territory, so to speak. It's been a while since any other party got a look in here. Former Mayor of Kirklees Andrew Palfreeman should win this easily.

Prediction: Conservative hold

CLECKHEATON

The closest the Lib Dems come to a safe seat in Kirklees these days.
Along with Almondbury, it was the only one to survive last year's cull. Andrew Pinnock won by a healthy 900 votes in 2011 and his wife and party leader Kath Pinnock should do something similar today.

Prediction: Lib Dem hold


COLNE VALLEY

In the words of Barry Davies: “Interesting. Very interesting.” The Tories won this last year in a tight three-way race, with Labour 100 votes behind and the Lib Dems another 150 further back in third.

With only 250 votes between the parties in 2011, it's all to play for in 2012. And there are some signs of encouragement for the Lib Dems in this seat.

Last year they fielded a new candidate after long-serving councillor Margaret Fearnley retired. This time sitting councillor David Ridgway is defending his seat, which should give the party's vote a little boost. Unlike last year, the Conservatives and Labour are fielding “outsiders” in this race – from far-off Milnsbridge and Paddock respectively. Don't chortle. In the extremely parochial world of Kirklees politics, a mile or two can make all the difference.

Prediction: Lib Dem hold (just)


CROSLAND MOOR AND NETHERTON

Anti-cuts campaigner Jackie Grunsell returns once again in an increasingly forlorn bid to retake the seat she won in 2006 on the back of huge anger at the plan to remove full maternity services from HRI. Labour's Molly Walton to take this one easily.

Prediction: Labour hold


DALTON

Labour took a seat off the Lib Dems in this ward last year, running out winners by 1,200 votes (that's more emphatic than it sounds as Dalton has one of the lowest turnouts in Kirklees). Rochelle Parchment is defending for the Lib Dems this year but, given last year's result, she's very much second favourite to Naheed Mather of Labour.

Prediction: Labour gain from Lib Dems


DENBY DALE

Another seat which could have Barry Davies reaching for his thesaurus. Last year sitting Conservative Elaine Ward held off perennial Labour candidate Graham Turner by just 229 votes. This year it's John Cook's turn to defend his seat for the Tories. Given the month the party has just had nationally – pastygate, Jeremy Hunt, fuel panic, granny tax etc – this is not a great time to be a Conservative councillor defending a marginal seat against the main opposition party. If Labour can't win this seat this year, it's time to worry.

Prediction: Labour gain from Conservatives


DEWSBURY EAST

Could be an interesting one this. It's usually a safe Labour seat but there's a lot of anger about the party's support for 500 new homes on green belt land at Chidswell. Paul Kane, who is defending the seat today, rebelled against Labour and voted against the development. However, I hear that some locals aren't exactly placated by this.
Probably Labour's dodgiest seat today but, with a 1,600-vote cushion last year, they should still be OK.

Prediction: Labour hold


DEWSBURY SOUTH

Another interesting seat – and that was even before the allegations of postal vote fraud emerged last week.
Conservative-turned-independent-turned-Conservative Khizar Iqbal will defend his seat today with the main challenge coming from Labour's Abdul Patel – one of two sub-postmasters in with a chance of becoming a Kirklees councillor today.

Prediction: Conservative hold


DEWSBURY WEST

Yet more bad news for the Lib Dems here, I suspect. Last year Naz Hussain lost his seat to Labour, left the Lib Dems and decided to run as an independent. Meanwhile, former Mayor of Kirklees Karam Hussain
decided to retire this year rather than try to keep the yellow flag flying.

The loss of a well-known Lib Dem name and the presence of a former councillor on the ballot paper as a spoiler makes this an open goal for Labour. Expect Karen Rowling to tuck this one into the back
of the net with a minimum of fuss.

You might remember her for leading the campaign to keep Castle Hall School in  Mirfield open a few years
ago. A lot of children from Ravensthorpe go to Castle Hall, giving her an extra appeal on the doorsteps.

Prediction: Labour gain from Lib Dems


GOLCAR

It looks like being another tough day for the Iredale family. In 2011 Bob lost his seat in Golcar, this year it's wife Christine's go to try to hold back the Labour tide. As if that wasn't bad enough, her daughter Rochelle Parchment faces a tough fight in Dalton as well (see above). Christine is due to become Mayor of Kirklees later this month,
having just completed a year as deputy.

But she'll have to cling on to her seat today if she's to get her hands on the chain. Bob lost to Labour by just 200 votes last time, so his wife is in with a chance today.

Prediction: Labour gain from Lib Dems


GREENHEAD

We did a big piece about the Conservative candidate for this ward – Katie Frank – a few months ago. It made a good story: Teenage Margaret Thatcher fan takes on Labour council leader. She hasn't got a hope though. Labour took 64% of the vote in Greenhead last year – and that was with a new candidate. Mehboob Khan should be looking to top that.

Prediction: Labour hold


HECKMONDWIKE

This used to be an interesting seat when the BNP were around. Not any more. Labour took 70% of the vote last year and should look to do similar today.

Prediction: Labour hold


HOLME VALLEY NORTH

OK, take a deep breath while I try to explain the goings-on in Honley and Meltham. In 2010  independent Terry Lyons unseated Conservative Royston Rogers – on the same day as the Tories won back the Colne Valley constituency for the first time since 1997.

That was strange enough. The following year, Terry's ally Edgar Holroyd-Doveton defeated sitting Lib Dem David Woodhead in a contest which also involved the husband of a current councillor and a former MP (that's two husbands by the way, rather than one bigamist).

So now we're on to 2012 and the independents are trying to make it a clean sweep by running Charles Greaves. But here's the thing. He's from Honley rather than Meltham and, unlike Terry and Edgar, he opposes the LDF. So it's all got a bit complicated.

Meanwhile, to continue the family connection, the Lib Dems have put up Katie Turner, who's the daughter of Colne Valley councillor Nicola. The Tories are running Honley sub-postmaster Brenda Bodenham.

To the best of my knowledge she's not related to any councillors or MPs. But she is in with a very good chance of retaining the seat which has been vacated by her colleague Beryl Smith (whose husband Basil stood last year).

Clear? Good.

Prediction: My head hurts. Sorry, I mean Conservative hold


HOLME VALLEY SOUTH

Things are rather less complicated round Holmfirth. The Conservatives always win. Donald Firth is this year's unassailable Tory councillor.

Prediction: Conservative hold


KIRKBURTON

Adrian Murphy is defending this one for the Tories and it could be another case of chains denied, as the Conservative is due to become Deputy Mayor of Kirklees this month, followed by the big chair next year. First he has to keep his seat on Kirkburton, and his performance in a recent parish council by-election – third out of four – doesn't bode well.

The Greens are pushing hard to pick up a second seat here and have a strong candidate in the shape of Farnley Tyas farmer and parish councillor Robert Barraclough. However, the last few elections suggest that, while the Greens barely cling to their one seat in the ward, the Tories hold both of theirs comfortably.

Prediction: Conservative hold


LINDLEY

Tony Brice took this seat for the Conservatives last year, becoming the only Tory councillor in Huddersfield. Since then, he's been convicted of benefit fraud and kicked out of the party. The Lib Dems, who are once again defending a seat in Lindley, have tried to make the most of this by putting out a leaflet drawing attention to the
now-independent councillor's conviction.

Will any of this rub off on Conservative candidate Mark Hemingway? Probably not. The Lib Dems were closer to third than first last time and they could end up with the bronze medal today.

Prediction: Conservative gain from Lib Dems


LIVERSEDGE AND GOMERSAL

The Tories held this one by 300 votes over Labour last year. Veteran Margaret Bates is the kind of safe pair of hands who should be able to retain the seat for the Conservatives this time, but she's within the kind of range where problems for the party nationally could impact her. In pools terms, this could be a coupon-buster for me.

Prediction: Conservative hold


MIRFIELD

No such problems with this seat. Cycling Conservative councillor Martyn Bolt will remain in the saddle for another four years.

Prediction: Conservative hold


NEWSOME

Two things tend to happen in Newsome: 1. Not many people vote 2. Those that do, tend to vote Green. No change this year with party leader Andrew Cooper re-elected on a wave of apathy.

Prediction: Green hold


So here's how the council will look if I'm right:

Labour 31 (+4)
Conservatives 21 (no change)
Lib Dems 10 (-4)
Greens 4 (no change)
Independents 3 (no change)

Phew!