There could be just 1% difference in who wins the Colne Valley general election seat in May.
If the results of a top-rated poll are anything to go by it could even be one of the closest votes nationally.
Data from Lord Ashcroft polls reveals the small margin in the voting predictions.
Of the 1,000 people questioned, people were asked how they would vote on a general election the next day and 34% voted for Labour and 33% vote for the Conservatives.
But when asked to think about their own constituency, the vote switches and the Conservatives on 33% edge Labour on 32%.
Lord Ashcroft himself said of the poll: “Although the Liberal Democrats came second in Colne Valley in 2010, I don’t think it is too controversial to consider Labour the main challengers this time round.”
Lord Ashcroft’s analysis of the answers to nine questions gives the Conservative a one point lead.
Jason McCartney, current holder of the seat, said: “It was always going to be a close call, but I think the figurers show that other parties such as UKIP are not going to win in the Colne Valley.
“People were asked for their views based on the party, not a named candidate, and there was another anomaly in that Paul Salveson of Yorkshire First was left out altogether.”
The Conservative MP added: “I think people locally know that I’m a hardworking, positive local MP who stands up for my area, in Parliament I’ve voted against the government 53 times on really important subjects like fracking, Syria and tuition fees because I listen to local people.
“I think people nationally have the choice of the competence of the Conservative versus the chaos of Labour’s economic policy. Locally they have the option to pick someone who has worked their socks off for the area, lives here and is proud of my record of standing up for the Colne Valley.”
Jane East, Labour’s candidate for the seat, said: “It’s all to play for.
“I appreciate that many people in the Colne Valley don’t know who to vote for and I fully respect that, I myself as a first time politician got into politics because I was disillusioned with politics.
“This data shows Labour has considerably slashed the Conservative majority, so watch this space.”
Asked if she felt people were voting for a person or party, Jane said: “I think there’s a balance between policies and personality, but after five years in the job Jason McCartney’s profile around the constituency isn’t enough when it comes down to the polls.
“I’ve been pounding the doorsteps and having conversations with people and they appreciate someone knocking on their door.”
The poll suggests that on a vote the next day, UKIP would get 13%, the Lib Dems and Greens tied on 9%. But with the local constituency in mind the Lib Dems were on 12%, UKIP on 11% and Greens on 10%.
