THE war on terror has been a disaster, according to a Huddersfield academic.
But Prof Paul Rogers, from Kirkburton, says the failure of the military response to the 9/11 atrocities may lead to a more intelligent approach to security threats in future.
Rogers is global security consultant to Oxford Research Group (ORG), an independent, non-governmental organisation and registered charity which argues for a new approach to security issues.
He is also professor of peace studies at Bradford University.
In a study called Global Security after the War on Terror, released today, he says: “The war on terror has been a disaster, but recognising its failure might at least help us develop our understanding of global security in a manner appropriate to the 21st century.”
In previous studies, the ORG has argued that, although the forceful military response to the 9/11 attacks on the United States was understandable, it was wrong and dangerous.
The group predicted that such a reaction would lead to a long period of war.
In his new study, Rogers says the evidence proves this theory was correct.
He points to the fact that war in Iraq has led to 100,000 civilian deaths, created 120,000 refugees and caused continuing violence.
A “disastrous” war in Afghanistan, now entering its ninth year and increasingly involving Pakistan, also proves the heavy-handed military response has failed, he says.
Rogers claims there needs to be less emphasis on military responses and much more on conflict-prevention in future.
He says the most serious threats to global security will not come from groups like al-Qaeda.
Instead, the impact of the widening gap between the world’s rich and poor, marginalisation of vast numbers of the world’s population and climate change will pose the greatest danger.
More efforts must be made to provide third world debt relief, bring about fairer international trade and give direct help to the world’s poorest countries to encourage sustainable development.
He says: “The experience of the last eight years is hugely relevant to the future.
“In the original 9/11 attacks, a small number of determined people turned passenger jets into weapons.
“In Iraq, just a few thousand insurgents tied down over 200,000 of the world’s best equipped and best trained armed forces for nearly six years.
“In Afghanistan the insurgents are probably no greater in number yet are gaining ground after more than eight years of conflict.
“The war on terror has been a classic example of what might be termed ‘liddism’ – keeping the lid on security threats without recognising, still less understanding, the underlying reasons for insecurity.
“Such an approach – the determined effort to maintain control – fails to recognise the interconnected nature of today’s globalised world.
“The castle gates simply cannot be closed.”
