So England go into tonight’s World Cup final group game against Belgium knowing they are already guaranteed a place in the last 16.
The discussions about whether we finish top of the group or second are really very funny.
The one thing I will say is that Belgium will be much better at not winning than we will be.
I know that might sound daft, but here’s an example of what I mean.
I remember going to Belgium in the 1980s to play for Lokeren and I scored in the first three matches of the season.
Our next match was away to Mechelen, who were the top side at that time and went on to win the UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup and the UEFA Super Cup.
I was dropped, because we weren’t playing with any forwards in the match.
We got a 0-0 draw and everyone was giving high fives!
So Belgium tonight, with a completely changed side, will very likely lose the game.
The reality is, of course, that being second in Group G is the place you want to be.
Belgium are now third favourites to win the World Cup.
With Sky Bet, the odds are 3/1 favourites Brazil, 4/1 Spain, 13/2 Belgium, 15/2 England and 8/1 France.
If Belgium finish top of the group, then their price will probably double, just as England’s will.
I guess you will find England’s price at 12/1 or 14/1 if they go through top of Group G.
That gives a picture of the cold, hard facts of ending up in one half of the draw rather than the other.
No emotion, nothing but harsh reality.
So when you are watching the game tonight and it’s 0-0 with five minutes to go, don’t be throwing things at the screen and saying this England team are rubbish.
This match is literally like a friendly, where both teams can take their foot off the gas and prepare for a last-16 game.
And I really don’t care whether Harry Kane thinks he can win the Golden Boot.
2018 World Cup
He is not there for personal accolades, and I would have him on the bench tonight, rested and fresh for the last-16 game.
We all have different opinions on what our team should be, but the big one for me is that Kane should be given a break.
