With the Premier League reaching the business end of the campaign, it’s time for a proper look at the relegation candidates from the top-flight.
And I have to say it’s looking like any three from 11 – so get your pens at the ready to take down the SkyBet odds!
Swansea City - 20th - odds to go down: 1/2
It was a huge win for the Swans against Liverpool and Carlos Carvalhal certainly has got them playing with a lot more confidence.
They hardly created a thing against Liverpool, so it was a huge bonus for them to get the three points, just as it was for Huddersfield Town against Manchester United back in October.
Swansea are the worst team in the Premier League, but they still have 20 points, which shows how even the worst sides are capable of picking up rewards.
I still feel Swansea, however, will be one of the relegated sides.
West Bromwich Albion - 19th - odds to go down: 6/5
The new manager bounce with Alan Pardew just hasn’t happened at West Brom.
The win against Brighton & Hove Albion and draw at Everton have definitely put some energy back into a low-scoring squad.
But they are similar to Town in that regard, with Jay Rodriguez their top scorer on only four goals in the top flight (and six overall).
Their lack of goals will cause them problems and if they lose Jonny Evans in this January transfer window, then they will be a serious threat to go down.
Southampton - 18th - odds to go down: 9/2
The Saints showed against Tottenham Hotspur just what a good side they are.
They dominated the game for long periods but, as with most sides down the bottom end, they are just lacking that goalscoring edge.
I don’t see Southampton being down there at the bottom come the end of the season.
Stoke City - 17th - odds to go down: 2/1
Despite Stoke City beating Town , I still see them struggling this season.
The Paul Lambert appointment is very strange, and their chances of staying up will probably depend on Xherdan Shaqiri.
He is a class act, but when you watch him most of the time, you wonder if he really cares or is bothered about what’s going on around him.
At his best he is brilliant, so let’s hope for Town’s sake he starts planning for a move in the summer and it takes his attention away from the job in hand.
I can still see Stoke City filling one of those final relegation spots.
Brighton & Hove Albion - 16th - odds to go down: 11/8
Their season is pretty much a mirror image of Town’s, with the lack of a goalscorer and that lack of quality in the final third showing up week after week.
Brighton have not scored in their last eight away games and I’m hoping that lack of goals will be strong contenders to fill one of the relegation slots.
But they did show, despite being two goals down to Chelsea , there is still a lot of energy and fight in them and they won’t go down quietly.
Newcastle United - 15th - odds to go down: 5/2
Despite the lack of investment in the squad it does feel like Rafa Benitez is canny enough to keep The Toon up.
They have taken only two points from their last seven home games, and they can’t keep relying on picking up results away from home.
If they takeover doesn’t happen at the club, we’ve seen before how internal fighting can have a detrimental effect on the team’s performance.
Town - 14th - odds to go down: 11/10
Let’s be honest, every neutral in the country has Town as relegation bankers - but I certainly don’t!
It’s only if you’ve seen the progress at the club, the enthusiasm and energy created at every home game and the clarity and knowledge of the coach that you appreciate where Town are.
They just need to start believing in themselves like they were earlier in the campaign.
As I’ve said many times before, signings are tough for Town because they can’t just walk into the formation and function. It takes time.
I do genuinely believe Town can get to 35 points, and that could be enough to keep anyone up this season.
Home games to Swansea City, Crystal Palace , Watford and AFC Bournemouth are all six-pointers, obviously, and as we are getting to the ‘must win’ stage, let’s keep everything crossed for David Wagner and the players.
Crystal Palace - 13th - odds to go down: 9/1
Working with a quality squad, Roy Hodgson ’s experience has been key and the madness of their early-season form has now gone away.
Wilfried Zaha is one of the most exciting players in the Premier League and while he stays fit and healthy, they will be fine.
AFC Bournemouth - 12th - odds to go down: 8/1
The one thing Bournemouth have learned in their few years in the Premier League is you must have a goal threat - and they have exactly that.
They do concede regularly, but they do have players who can regularly find the back of the net.
While Jermain Defoe has not started every game, it’s an indication from Eddie Howe that he knows exactly what’s required to stay up that the 35-year-old has featured 16 times at top level.
His double against Palace last month showed what a class act he still is, and I expect the team’s scoring record to keep them up.
West Ham United - 11th - odds to go down: 14/1
A quality squad who simply lost faith in their manager.
I have to admit I did not think David Moyes was the right appointment, but he has got the players back and performing with the required passion.
We saw a couple of weeks ago at the John Smith’s Stadium that Marko Arnautovic and Manuel Lanzini have the sort of quality which teams like Town can only dream of and will be a big miss through injury in the coming few weeks.
Watford - 10th - odds to go down: 8/1
If there is an outsider for the bottom three then it could be the Hornets.
They change managers for fun and once again find themselves drifting around mid-table.
They have now lost seven of the last nine games and, if it wasn’t for a dubious handball at home to Southampton, it would be eight out of nine.
The change of manager is no guarantee that results will change, and if Town can put four past them on their own patch then they must be vulnerable to anyone.
Verdict
So my three teams to get relegated are: Swansea, Brighton and West Brom.
But if you ask me in a couple of week’s time then I might have changed my mind, because three or four points for anyone will take off so much pressure.
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